COAL VS TANZANIA NDCS? IS THE COUNTRY ON TRACK?

COAL VS TANZANIA NDCS? IS THE COUNTRY ON TRACK?

Tanzania has not been spared from the effects of climate change, a reality starkly evident in the events of late 2023 and throughout 2024. The nation has endured severe weather conditions, leading to tragic floods that claimed the lives of over 150 individuals in 2024 alone. These catastrophic events have occurred alongside significant damage to infrastructure, including the destruction of kilometres of paved roads due to intense water runoffs. Additionally, mudslides have ravaged certain regions, further contributing to the loss of human life. The challenges of 2024 have exacerbated the difficulties faced in the previous year, during which the Tanzanian government frequently attributed disruptions in electricity and water supply to the adverse effects of climate change.

Given this context, it is increasingly important to examine and evaluate Tanzania's progress regarding its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs are commitments made by nations to address climate change by setting specific goals. This discussion will center on the intersection of NDCs and COAL. Coal is a fossil fuel that, when burned, releases a high level of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are a major contributor to climate change. The focus here is to explore how Tanzania's NDCs are addressing the challenge of coal dependency amidst the pressing need to mitigate climate change impacts.

It should be noted that, Tanzania's updated NDC, submitted in 2021, commits to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30-35% by 2030 compared to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario. This ambitious target includes actions across various sectors such as energy, transport, forestry, waste management, and adaptation measures in agriculture, water resources, and coastal management.

ENERGY SECTOR AND COAL USAGE

Despite commitments, Tanzania continues to heavily invest in its fossil industry. Over 60% of electricity production in the country depends on natural gas. Moreover, the country plans to set up an LNG plant in Lindi that will liquefy natural gas to meet foreign and local markets. Re-centering the discussion on coal, the Karoo belts of Tanzania are also enjoying a rush following the Ukraine-Russia tensions. Trucks carrying coal are constantly back and forth towards port and some going to other East Africa nations such as Kenya. A small coal mine, in Nkomolo II, Nkasi DC is also operating. A number of cement producing companies also depend on coal as a raw material for cement production.

Tanzania's engagement with coal as an energy source is multifaceted. Currently, the country exploits coal on a small scale at the Kiwira Coal Mine, which operates in the Songwe-Kiwira Coalfield. However, there are significant plans for expansion. Notably, the Mchuchuma Coal Mine is part of a $3 billion deal signed with China to mine coal and iron ore, which includes the construction of a 600-megawatt (MW) thermal power station. The Ngaka Coal Mine is the largest operational coal mine in Tanzania and in East Africa, with proven coal resources amounting to 367 million tonnes. The government of Tanzania has ambitious plans to develop up to 2,900 MW of coal-fired power generation by 2025. These developments indicate a significant investment in coal-powered energy, which aligns with the country's economic interests but also poses challenges in terms of meeting NDCs.

COAL VS NDCs

 "COAL" despite being known for its amount of GHGs has not been written within the 25-page document that carries Tanzania commitments to addressing climate change.

Tanzania now celebrates nearly 10% of the contribution of the mining sector to the GDP. The reliance on coal presents a significant challenge for Tanzania's climate commitments. The country's focus on expanding its coal industry, including new investments and increased production, contrasts with its NDC goals. This reliance on fossil fuels could hinder Tanzania's ability to meet its emission reduction targets if not balanced with substantial investments in renewable energy and other mitigation strategies.

The expansion of coal mines and the construction of new coal-fired power plants will inevitably lead to a rise in greenhouse gas emissions, directly contradicting the NDCs' goal to reduce them.

By expanding its coal industry, Tanzania risks non-compliance with international climate agreements that it is a part of, which may include stipulations for reducing fossil fuel dependency.

The commitment to coal may slow down the transition to cleaner energy sources, making it difficult to achieve the NDCs' targets for renewable energy.

There is a clear conflict between the government's economic plans for coal and its environmental policies, leading to policy inconsistency.

While coal may provide short-term economic gains, the long-term impacts of climate change, exacerbated by increased coal usage, could outweigh these benefits and lead to greater economic challenges.